On Tuesday, the SFMTA Board of Directors voted to direct staff to pursue service cuts this summer. The vote went 3-2, with directors Chen, Hinze, and Tarlov supporting cuts. Cajina and Heminger did not. They correctly preferred the option to use the operating reserves. Henderson was absent on vacation. The seventh member, Felder, was not appointed in time to attend.
There’s still an opportunity to avoid the cuts.
There was a rally on the city hall steps before the meeting. The Muni Now Muni Forever campaign organized it, and it was well-attended by hundreds of supporters and supervisors Mahmood (D5), Melgar (D7), and Fielder (D9). There’s little to no media coverage of the vote to make cuts and even less of the rally beforehand. It drew over 60 people to give public comment to the Board of Directors. Not one comment to the board was against using the reserves. The media environment continues to focus on business needs, austerity politics, and fearmongering.
The alleged fear of using $7.2m in reserves (about 5% of the operating reserves) to avoid cuts is leaving insufficient flexibility to deal with the upcoming $320m operating deficit. There may not be any funding coming next year. On its face, that seems reasonable. However, I argue that $7.2m is a pocket change in this budget and the reserves and a highly acceptable risk to swallow in exchange for critical voter support. Plus, you have more conservative wings of transit advocacy and business and neighborhood association community members supporting this choice to avoid cuts! It’s a no-brainer. A highly representative “cross-section of the city” is practically begging the board to use the reserves.
Voter support for Muni funding measures is complicated. Those who aren’t on the ground talking to voters opine about fare evasion, poor perceptions of capital projects (e.g., the Central Subway), and safety on transit. However, the most significant factor in voter support is whether or not someone trusts that Muni serves them — be it on a bus, light rail vehicle, or Paratransit van. I would know because last election season, I worked on Prop L and talked to hundreds of voters at their door, gathered 400 signatures, and texted over 100k voters in the City. Prop L passed and should have prevented these summer cuts by raising at least $25m from business taxes on ride-hail companies. However, Prop M, supported by the business community (e.g., the Chamber of Commerce and Golden Gate Restaurant Association), contained a poison pill targeted at Prop L. It received more Yes votes than Prop L, and alas, Prop L was nullified. At the final Muni Funding Working Group meeting this morning, those same people were in the room.
This support is essential. As detailed in the working group’s presentation, Muni will be relying on 2–3 revenue measures to plug its deficit. Otherwise we risk cuts to Muni that will secure the trajectory of its death spiral. The largest revenue measure is the regional measure, a sales tax. They’re then looking at a local parcel tax. Maybe more in 2028. It’s a lot to ask of voters and it’s not a favorable political climate. Let alone for sales taxes.
Tarlov said she understood that this makes advocates’ jobs harder. It’s worse than that. It makes some votes impossible to get. Once you alienate a rider from Muni, you don’t get them back as supportive voters. It’s hard to get those more conservative wings of the community on your side, and now you’ve squandered that chance. The summer cuts take away bus service on Haight St after 10pm. The 5R and 9R will become even more packed and pass up even more riders. Those voters we previously could rely on while advocates move on to use precious resources on harder swing votes will be gone. It’s a slap in the face to advocates who constantly fight to maintain the service we’ve lost in the pandemic, in 2009, in 1989, and so on. Service we just never get back again. It’s never temporary. The doom and gloom in the advocacy community spreads and spreads. Meanwhile, city board members claim that Muni’s service is essential for downtown revitalization and the broader city economy. They claim that it’s a critical piece for regional transit. And yet.
Politicians like Mayor Lurie are signaling that they want cuts — to make their life easier in balancing the city budget and to give in to other players in the regional measure. That way, less of the pie needs to go to Muni. So people are worried about the risk of a coalition breaking down in a regional measure and want to appease everyone by making Muni more “efficient.” However, in 2026, San Francisco will be responsible for making up for less voter support in less transit-friendly counties. And so voter support in the City continues to be essential. Thus, there are no shortcuts here. We must maximize trust in Muni and maintain voter support. Making cuts in summer 2025 is prematurely conceding loss.
The MTA Board of Directors can still decide on April 1st to not approve the cuts. The staff will bring back their detailed service plan for approval by the board. They should do the right thing and instead use the reserves. We have to take the right bets.
You can email the members of the board at [email protected]. Thank Cajina and Heminger for doing the right thing. Ask Tarlov, Hinze, and Chen to use the reserves. You can also write to the Mayor for the Muni Now Muni Forever campaign.
